Board of Supervisors Meeting   1/28/2025

How are you?

Good afternoon.

It's a pleasure to meet you, too.

Thank you so much for having me.

Yeah, but nothing ever got done.

At least the recreation part of it is.

I don't want to eat it.

Oh, I'm going to put the cinnamon on that when you roll in there.

Yeah.

Yeah.

You remind, when you said that, it reminded me of when they made fruitcakes and had the thing in the middle, fruitcake, fruitcake is just too rich for me.

I mean, I've got to put enough rum in, put so much sweet.

I remember the first time I had one of those lady fingers.

I was a kid and I didn't know they were like doused in rum.

And I thought it was like a Twinkie, I guess.

I don't know.

I was like, wow.

My grandfather, he used to drink scotch.

And I remember as a kid, it looked good to me.

Stop scotch on the rocks.

And I grabbed one of them one time and poured that on down.

And that was worse.

I think that was worse than the wrong I ever thought about being.

It definitely worked.

I was done with that.

Hi, Kelly Kemp.

Okay, the meeting will come to order.

Welcome, everyone.

First on the agenda tonight,

Absolutely.

I'm very happy to introduce Dr. Cheryl Bailey, who has nearly 30 years of experience in administration and finance as a senior executive in state and local government and the private sector, including gubernatorial cabinet and state authority director experience in Virginia.

as well as extensive higher education experience.

And she's currently serves as a visiting professor of practice and adjunct faculty at the School of Public and International Affairs at Virginia Tech and as principal of Forward Strategies Consulting, LLC.

Dr. Bailey has overseen enterprise-wide administrative services for complex statewide functions and consolidated county government and public school operations, including directing several landmark initiatives that transformed operations and significantly enhanced outcomes, efficiency and effectiveness.

She has a proven record

directing broad-based strategic planning as a foundation for substantial growth and operational advancement.

Dr. Bailey also has leading-edge experience at the forefront of public policy initiatives with national, state, and local government and has presented a policy briefing on Capitol Hill on the federal tax policy of municipal securities and financing infrastructure.

Dr. Bailey has a state and local record of successfully leading financial turnarounds and enhancing performance.

Her extensive finance experience also includes directing Virginia's Municipal Bond Bank, overseeing $2.6 billion in total bond transactions and funding from multiple diverse state bond pools in just over four years, and directing a public finance division for a national municipal advisory firm as a licensed Series 50 municipal advisor.

She has directed complex municipal debt and capital management programs and the financial policy and planning of several regional authorities and major jurisdictions, as well as overseeing the development and financing of large economic development initiatives and public-private partnerships.

Throughout her career, Dr. Bailey has successfully restructured numerous bond programs and debt portfolios, achieved multiple credit rating upgrades and enhancements, increased statutory authority for our inter-

infrastructure options and secured hundreds of millions in refunding savings.

She formerly served as Board of Directors at the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board with the approval by the U.S.

Securities and Exchange Commission.

She's been active for many years in International City County Management Association and Government Finance Officers Association and their state affiliates, having held leadership positions and served on several national and state task forces and committees.

Dr. Bailey achieved her bachelor's degree summa cum laude in economics from Norfolk State University and her master's and doctorate degrees in economics from Harvard University.

She has served as a visiting economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and on the faculties of Harvard, Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion and Hampton Universities, the College of William and Mary and Virginia Tech.

And I have known Dr. Bailey by reputation for many years, but I was very pleased that she was able to do this very important review for us.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

I'm very appreciative of that generous introduction.

Yes, thank you very much, Madam County Administrator.

Mr. Chairman, members of the board, it is a distinct pleasure for me to be here to represent a team from Virginia Tech Institute for Policy and Governance.

We do appreciate the opportunity.

to work with Greene County and for you asking us to assist with some of your ongoing initiatives and programs you have here with the county.

So Jim has given me significant instructions.

So I'm just going to do that.

And I don't have to point it in any place in particular.

So just to review the purpose of our analysis, Greene County requested a review of the Housing Start estimates underlying the water and sewer financial model as related to this water reservoir project.

As such,

We were able to come together with the Institute for Policy and Governance and we conducted a limited review.

We were focused on the request, the housing start assumptions underlying the water and sewer system model.

And we also conducted associated research independently.

We conducted this research and analysis and external factors.

Now, something I have to mention

County Administrator in my bio indicated that I was formerly served on the Board of Governors of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board.

So I'm very clear of the red lines for security regulations.

So we have to declare that we did not serve as a municipal advisor in this engagement.

So therefore, we were

and this is in conformance with securities regulations so we did not review the financing plan or financial analysis which has been conducted by the licensed and registered municipal advisor that you have Davenport and Company.

It requires to be registered with the Municipal and Securities Rulemaking Board in order to be authorizing the securities

regulations and engaged by the county to do that.

And certainly as a former board member of MSRB, I certainly have to comply with those regulations.

So the financing plan and those financial analysis is outside the scope of our analysis.

And I have been, I'm a retired licensed municipal advisor, but my license is not current.

So I still honor those red lines.

since I served on the board when we were doing some of those specifications of what is appropriate in the municipal market.

So just a quick background on

Virginia Tech IPG.

We are an institute of over 20 years actively as IPG and longer than that with some prior units that got consolidated.

And so we provide research, technical assistance, capacity building, and community engagement projects

concerning democracy.

I consider local government the bedrock of democracy.

The buck stops here, right?

It all stops here.

And the challenges of public sector.

We've completed projects in many areas for local, state, regional, national, and international projects.

partners and nonprofits.

And you see the number of areas there that we have conducted projects and where we focus.

We have a history of working with local governments.

We have a long-term relationship with Fairfax County.

We've worked with Loudoun County, the city of Roanoke, Allegheny Health District, Pulaski County.

And also I've been working with Albemarle County for three years directly myself.

In terms of our team,

I, yours truly, project team, but also we have a total of three PhDs on this team, two of which are economists, and also we have a graduate assistant with an economics background, has also been involved in tax policy and other research and methods.

So this is our team, Dr. David Moore, Dr. Bernice Owusu-Brown, and Ms.

Olabisi Akumwuni.

forgive me if you're tuning in.

And so this is the team that we have and we've worked intently together.

In terms of our methodology, we always like to identify how we went about doing the work.

So we reviewed the history of the water reservoir project and we looked at a number of resources there.

We also reviewed each project underlying that underlie the county's estimates

for the housing projections going forward.

And these are the projects that have been identified by the county as having current activity.

And we looked at all the planning documents.

My colleague,

read every planning document and from every hearing back through time and asked for more if she didn't find what she was looking for.

We also had, well, this is true, you remember all the questions you got.

And also we as a full team, our full team here, all four of us came and spent a day

in Greene County.

The snow did not discourage us.

We came here as soon as the VDOT had the roads clear and we spent a day and not only did we look at all the documents and review those projects, we went and as I'm a Virginia girl born and bred so I'm gonna say and we laid eyes on it.

We laid eyes on it.

We came and laid eyes on us and wanted to see it for ourselves and so we took and looked at that.

We also while we were here

we went by the water treatment plant and we saw the site of the proposed water reservoir.

It's important for us to see and Google maps and it's just not the same.

We had to come here and see for ourselves.

That wasn't our part of our original plan but we really thought that was important to do.

We also reviewed the water and sewer financial model that Davenport prepared.

It was explained to us not

again from the financial analysis or the financing plan, but we just wanted to know how does it work?

Just how does it work?

What is it?

And so we wanted to make sure we understood what is the methodology and findings.

We didn't want to be two ships passing the night and not know what that was about.

Also, we looked at all of relevant national, state, regional data,

and local demographic and economic trends data carefully.

We carefully selected those indicators.

And this is the situation when you're dealing with local economies is that oftentimes the national

Normal metrics are not available at the same frequency or the same units of measure.

So we adjusted our review to make sure we could look for some comparability.

For instance, we use per capita income as opposed to personal income.

Per capita personal income is on a per person basis, which means you can compare it toward

to the state and the nation as opposed to just looking at the actual number.

So we also would adjust whether it was annual data, quarterly data.

Some local data is only available annually.

So we would look at that through whatever the latest is.

The latest available for those annual statistics are 2023.

2024 is going to come a little bit later.

Then others, we would use Charlottesville MSA if it had more frequent data to see because you don't want to just look at something from 2023, which is now a year ago now.

So we adjust that based on the available data and the standard metrics used in the profession.

I also want to bring to attention that we have issued an addendum to the report.

We would consider it a technical amendment, if you will.

That's what we call the General Assembly.

Is it a technical amendment?

Does it have to go before the legislature or can it be handled administrative?

So this would fall as what we would consider a technical amendment.

Technically, the change related to

one particular project in terms of the application number of units versus the number of units actually approved.

The difference total net change was 64 units.

Those were units, those 64 approved units, approved.

So approved versus application.

The key aspect of that is why it's technical is that they were outside the model.

So the model does not include all of the approved units.

it only includes a subset of the residential projects

with current activity identified by the county.

That's the research that we did.

And so we looked at the application's total number of approved versus the total number inside the model.

And only a subset is inside the model.

So the impact of that technical amendment was outside the model.

And so therefore, it does not

And also the model, and I'll go into this in more detail, not only does the model not include all the residential approved units, it also does not include commercial and non-residential projects with current activity.

So we refer to in the model and outside the model.

This technical amendment was outside the model in terms of the total approved of 64 units.

And so the model does not incorporate these units that were

technically amended, updated.

We went from the original value to the updated value.

And so the analysis and finding conclusions remain.

They are unaffected and remain as the same as originally presented.

But I wanted to bring that to your attention today.

In terms of findings and conclusions, you can see that we did a lot of work.

And so I'm working to summarize it here.

So

and reviewing the water reservoir project and that information.

And we also had a number of county documents related to that history.

There has been a significant investment of time and funds.

What we've been able to identify for well over 22 years to secure a water reservoir income

accordance with the Commonwealth Virginia's requirement for a regional water supply plan as a result of the 2002 severe drought.

I'm very familiar with that drought.

I was in the governor's office at that time and we had a drought team and I was on that team.

And we were working and because I had a local government background, I was on that team.

And so we were really looking at a number of communities across the Commonwealth.

some of which just flat ran out of money.

I mean, ran out of water and saying, are you gonna truck us in water?

Well, the state didn't have, water is a local obligation.

And so there were some real, as that continued for some months, there was some real discussions.

And as a result of that, the state indicated that a regional

water supply plan was needed in communities such that they didn't expect the state to bring water when the state didn't have it to bring.

And so I'm familiar with that.

And so I imagine that that 2002 requirement for the regional water supply plan actually, what we can see in the documents, it led to more action on the part of the county here as well as many others.

as we had to prepare for that.

And so we talk about drought and climate today, but it's nothing new.

That was going on 23 years ago now.

And so we've seen that you've been investing time and money since that time.

Also, it seems though with you are positioned from what we can tell from the documents, you are positioned to proceed with the water reservoir project and to address water supply.

with the approval of the issuance of bonds.

That's the documents we've been able to identify.

Also, even without any growth, and the county administrator did mention my work with the Virginia Resources Authority, which is the Infrastructure Authority.

So I've been all over this state, and I've been the water lines everywhere, all the way to the West Virginia border and Tazewell.

They had some big projects out there that we went to and see.

I've had pictures standing next to the water pipes, almost tall as ice.

So, cause they were so happy to be able to make those investments.

And so one thing that I've learned from that, and I financed a lot of water, financed the expansion of the water treatment plant in Norfolk, which is a regional water treatment plant to include Virginia Beach,

expanded their water supply for Lake Gaston.

Everyone talks about the Virginia Beach Lake Gaston water, but actually the city of Norfolk with the regional water treatment plant is a full partner in that because Norfolk wheels and treats the water from the North Carolina line.

So it was a water, so it was a regional effort.

And so I've spent a lot of time with utilities and engineers and with those engineers.

And what I have learned is that it takes a long time

And also, even without growth, the documents indicate that there's significant deferred and ongoing maintenance in the system, and there are reliability issues for the current water and sewer system.

So that's something that I've recognized from my previous experience.

Safe drinking water is a pivotal resource for health, safety,

first and foremost, economic vitality and the quality of life for the community.

Economic vitality is key.

It's your tax base.

And I've worked with some communities that had a shrinking tax base because of the longstanding reliability issues for those communities.

Today, I love to drive through them and see them thrive once those key water reliability situations that we were able to help them with when I was a VRA to turn around.

So it is, I've seen the before and after.

And so again, health, safety, economic vitality, and quality of life.

Also, the public safety component is not discussed until something happens.

As we learned from the LA fires earlier this month, when they had a water supply issue early in those fires.

So that's part we don't talk about.

So I didn't, I said health and safety, but actually public safety is part of that as well.

In terms of the lead time, it's a long lead time.

And I bring forth some examples of which are very prominent in my experience in the Richmond area.

I work out the Richmond campus.

We call it the Capitol campus for Virginia Tech.

We have our main campus in Blacksburg.

We have a Capitol area campus in the Richmond area.

And also we have the Washington metro area campus.

So those are the three of my primary

campuses.

And up before COVID, there was actually a bus that went back and forth between Washington and Blacksburg every day in the morning and afternoon.

COVID, I guess we were gone, so Zoom now we don't.

And we were using Zoom before that, but now that bus hasn't been reinstituted.

So I'm in the Richmond area, although I'm with Virginia Tech, and I know the way to Blacksburg really well.

But one thing that we've experienced in Richmond, you all know that a good portion of the community didn't have water for five days.

and that was because it was a major storm that caused a good period of loss operations.

The Richmond Water Treatment Plant lost operations and then also some switching, electrical switching didn't happen.

The water valves didn't get switched, flooded, key areas, circuits got shorted out and it takes a long time to turn that battleship around.

So it took them instead of that evening, instead of the next day, it took them a good day and a half, maybe almost two days to get everything back up and operational because there's been so much flooding of electrical circuits because things didn't switch with the power outage for two hours and the backups didn't connect.

So it was just a domino effect.

Then they had to repressorize the system.

So people didn't have water sometimes a Thursday night, Friday, then it had to be tested.

It was five days.

without safe drinking water.

The YMCA opened its doors and people were driving from Ashland to almost Amelia to take a shower.

And so for those YMCs, they'd had water.

And so Hanover is now reconsidering its dependence because half of east of 95 is dependent on water

from Richmond, same thing for Henrico.

So they all had that effect.

Goochland gets his water from Hanover, I mean from Henrico, so they had the same effect.

It was just a spillover effect.

And now Hanover is reconsidering its dependence on Richmond water for that part of the county and also the deferral of this water reservoir twice back 30 years ago.

They had deferred twice.

They had two plans and they deferred on them.

And the county administrator in June

I'm sorry, in January 15th, he updated his board that it would take 20 to 25 years to get a water reservoir to resurrect the previous projects they had, and it would cost $500 million and more maybe by the time they built it.

So it's a long lead time.

Henrico just got sufficient, substantial completion of their Cobb Creek Reservoir in November.

Got a lot of news.

We've had a lot of news about water enrichment recently.

That was just before Christmas.

And 22 years to get to substantial completion, not going to be finished till sometime this year, 22 years to get there.

So it's a lead time, long lead time.

I'm from Hampton Road, so I talk about turning the battleship because we have those flat tops in Norfolk that we are real proud about.

So it's a long lead time.

And so your position is what we can identify in the document.

And so you're hearing a whole lot about my infrastructure background and my apologies on that.

Don't want to belabor that.

Now, given the investments to date, you are again positioned to address your current and future water needs.

We looked at, and I've been doing this for a lot of communities recently over the last year, as we approach the time where I can't be undercover anymore.

So by 2030, all baby movements will be 65 and over.

So I'm going to have to change my generation or I'm going to be in the number.

Everybody's going to know I'm in the number.

because they're all going to be 65 and over by 2030.

And soon thereafter, around 2033 or 34, we're going to have, this is based on U.S.

Census.

So this is all based on U.S.

Census and Weldon Cooper Center numbers.

Weldon Cooper Center is the official demographer of the Commonwealth of Virginia in between the decennial censuses.

And then they have a true up every time the decennial census comes out.

And so census projections

indicate that by 20, around 2033, 34, somewhere in there, certainly by 2035, we will have more people in America that are 65 and older than are 18 and under.

More.

Now, that's different than my growing up as a baby boomer, where it was always young was coming on younger.

And so some democracies say it's not an aging problem, it's a youth problem.

because of declining fertility rate and longevity.

So we're squeezing the working age population, typically census uses 18 to 64.

So that segment of the population is projected to diminish.

The segment that's 65 and over is increasing.

and it's going to overtake the 18 and under according to census, US census projections as of fall of 2023.

So therefore we see that in terms of the demographics that's gonna affect everything in America because the baby boomers have driven the bus before now and they're gonna drive it still even as they age and get 65 and older.

So in that regard with the shrinking of the workforce age

the 18 to 64, we're gonna be facing labor shortages in all across some professions more so than others.

Economists are now beginning to peel that onion back and look to see which professions are gonna be most impacted by age.

Your utilities director would like to know many trades, the trades are heavily impacted.

by those aging up 55 and older.

So we're gonna have real issues in trade.

So they're looking at those professions that are gonna be really impacted more so than others in terms of the demographics.

And so therefore thinking about attracting and retaining workforce is significant for a region's economic vitality.

It's just not gonna naturally come to my coming up years.

And I have a good friend who's a retired associate dean

but not in economics, but he did have agriculture economics.

And so I kept saying, it's gonna be different.

We can't talk about when we were managers, when we were managing staffs, it's gonna be a different kind of world.

We're not gonna have the population growth when we were coming up in our careers, the future is gonna be different.

So that's something, the workforce and employment.

Also, the migration trends in the United States and Virginia

and Weldon Cooper Center has done this and there's been several studies in the nation that a number of things are directing migration to outside of the primary, not to the point that has changed big trends.

The big trend is that population is going to the coast and dense areas.

However, with COVID and the acceleration of hybrid work,

there's been a counter trend as well.

And that counter trend, and particularly for young people, remember working age population, to young people, they're beginning to go outside the dense population area.

Think of the urban crescent in Virginia, Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads.

They're moving out of that, particularly Northern Virginia, because they want quality of life.

and they have the ability with some hybrid work options.

Moreover, affordability, housing affordability is really affecting those younger persons and also young people are really trying to get their first household.

And so millennials all have now are over 40.

believe that and and so therefore that's the key household formation period so they're searching for affordability and that household and so those migration trends are the same for the Virginia as well as the U.S.

and so therefore the smaller metro areas which is such as the Charlottesville MSA it's not the urban crescent but it's right you know it's right in that

as we would say in shouting distance.

And so that also we're seeing some migration trends in that area as well.

And then another thing we found is that Greene County's population growth has exceeded that of the state since 2000, all of this 21st century through 2023 as published by Weldon Cooper Center, our official demographer of the Commonwealth.

Looking at the economy, so that's one backdrop.

That's one of those backdrops we looked at.

Another backdrop we had, we thought it was important, was the economy and overall.

The US economy is entering 2025 with strong momentum.

We have strong economic growth and a solid job market.

And it's healthy.

It's a healthy economy.

Additionally,

Greene County's economic growth has exceeded that of both the U.S.

and Virginia in two of the three years in 2021 to 2023.

So you've generally been above trend in the U.S.

and Virginia in the rate of economic growth as measured by the real gross domestic product.

We say real.

Real is inflation just to take out inflation.

It's in current dollars.

Now, there is, so it's partly sunny, partly cloudy.

The part that clouds outlook there is policy uncertainty in the U.S.

We just had a major change in the administration.

And so all of the prominent forecasts are saying there's policy uncertainty until we see how this unfolds, although those forecasts are projecting certain projections.

And so until the actual policy shifts,

what actually gets implemented and the results of that is gonna come into focus over time.

But we are coming in very well as an economy entering into 2025.

And so we have a good head of steam behind us.

Greene County looking at the housing

local housing area.

We found that Greene County is competitively positioned in the Chesterfield, I mean, sorry, I live in Chesterfield, I work for Chesterfield.

So I start with CH and then who knows what I'm going to say.

I come from Hampton Roads, I might say Chesapeake too.

It's all CH, right?

But the Charlottesville area of Hampton Roads, I'm sorry, see there, I got myself time, Charlottesville region.

And this is by the Charlottesville area of Association for Realtors.

went through their data very significantly and select tables from their latest report is in our report.

So as of November, Greene County had the second lowest median sales price in the region.

You also had the highest year to date growth in sales.

And as of November and the housing demand

in Greene County and also the whole Charlottesville region exceeds supply in the two metrics used by the Virginia Association of Realtors.

That is the low median days on market and months of supply.

Those metrics are about half of what the Virginia Association of Realtors identifies as a healthy balanced market, which means it's

The current market is favoring the seller.

Another aspect in terms of your local economy coming from the state is the defense industry.

There's been a lot of discussion in this area with regard to the defense industry recently.

It's the second largest sector.

And in your regional economy,

And it has a growing presence.

Ravana Station, just down the road apiece, is the single largest contributor to the defense sector in this region.

It's a substation of Fort Belvoir, has a number of defense intelligence agencies of the federal government, and is strategically located on U.S.

Route 29.

And I think it's about two hours from Belvoir.

And it's a substation of that.

and it's just really close to the jurisdictional border between Greene and Albemarle and it's very close to the Rutgersville 2939 intersection.

Additionally, in the defense sector Albemarle County bought 462 acres in December of 2023

for their Ravana Futures project.

They're building the long, they want to, that was both an offense and a defensive move, defense and offense.

So the best defense is a good offense.

So I think it was the only installation where we heard that they actually had undeveloped property around as a buffer.

That's very valuable for national intelligence.

uniquely, I think, uniquely very valuable.

I had a student last semester who's a retiring Army officer.

He said, I wish I had known about this when I was locating a national intelligence at my two, he's retiring from the Pentagon.

He says, my two duty stations are booked before.

He identified it as very, very uniquely in terms of an installation with buffer land around it.

Albemarle bought the 462 acres.

They're building, they want to establish an intelligence community innovation acceleration campus.

And then to facilitate that development within six months Albemarle has had that rezoned.

They went through rezoning and it's been rezoned.

It's published that they are working to move up the tiers in the Virginia Economic Development Partnership for in terms of prepositioning for development.

Also,

The region has proximity to, of course, UVA.

Also, just down the road a piece is UVA's North Fork, their technology, which is a campus of technology firms, government agencies and academic research because of commercialization of that, and the Charlottesville Albemarle Airport.

It's just the same, very close to Ravana.

Thank you.

I did bring some, but now you're telling me I do need to use it.

All right.

Thank you so much.

I'll use it.

All right.

It's cool.

I'm sure they certified.

It's value.

Also, we've been informed by the county that the county is adding a flex technology research and development zone district.

to market and track technology and defense related firms that are coming to the area.

So with this continued growth in the defense technology and other sectors, it's going to drive a need for housing related to that growth.

And that's what we have identified is a very strong likelihood.

Your low month's

of supply and median days on market in both the Greene County and the Charlottesville region indicate that the supply, that's just a market, that's a market supply demand result.

Demand for the housing, supply of the housing, that's when you get statistics, low statistics of months of supply and median days on market.

That's purely market driven.

and also Greene County has increasing home sales as compared to the other communities in the Charlottesville area Association of Realtors.

That is also going to precipitate restaurants, service providers, retail and others going to push for that.

They follow the rooftops.

Another finding we have is that the projects that were identified by the county

with current activity, the residential projects have a diverse mix.

We went and saw those.

You have a diverse mix, attached single family, you have detached single family, you have townhomes, we've seen a number of different.

And so that diverse mix of residential projects of that current activity, single family, multifamily and senior residential, it fits with the demographic trends, aging,

aging, you're touching that, affordability with townhomes, it's a mix.

So it's not like putting all their eggs in just one type of housing going forward.

Additionally, we looked and we've been here and to Ruckersville and beyond, we went all around.

And certainly,

Given the total square miles of the county, and I've done work with waters and sewer systems trying to run lines to where people need it, and it's a long way out.

So it certainly is strategic to manage growth within your development area where there is existing water and sewer infrastructure.

It's very expensive to run lines to new areas where they need it, but you don't have yet the full corpus of customers.

You're looking at what does the line cash flow.

Well, in terms, but it's needed because water is health and safety first and foremost.

So

it becomes a tough issue for communities.

And I've done that also internationally.

It's just a tough issue when you have to extend water to significant areas away from your current development, lines.

And so managing the development in where you have the existing water and sewer infrastructure and development area is strategic, especially convenient to Route 29 corridor.

That makes sense.

is strategic.

So with all of this, we came to the conclusion that the water and sewer model is reasonable and prudent in terms of its estimates based on the data available now.

Everything is based on everything we can know now.

In terms of the future development projected for 2025 into 2034,

and that's based on the residential projects with current activity.

Now the ward and sewer model, as I said before, in the front, it only includes a portion of the units projected for that period from the residential projects with current activity.

So not all the residential projects are in the model.

and we looked at those planning documents, we looked at the projects in person, and we looked at what's underlying these estimates.

So we identified that all the residential projects with current activity are not in the model.

Additionally, we identified that the model excludes does not include

Current Activity in Commercial and Non-Residential Projects.

So these are projects with current activity.

We've seen them, we saw the pads and preparation has been done, land clearing has been done, some lines have been put in.

And so those non-commercial and non-residential projects, those are not in the model as well.

And then you have the diverse mix of housing that is

projected in your residential projects.

And these have been identified by the county as projects with current activity.

So we've been told by the county that it does not include projects that do not have current activity.

Now, we did identify that two of the residential projects with current activity do have some prepaid EDUs collection fees for water and sewer.

and so we wanted to really find out more about that.

And when we looked at that, we saw that those total prepaid EDUs in the out years of, or I would say 28 and 29 is primarily, well, 25 to 29 where they could be impacted.

Even though the owner has the discretion

whether to allocate those prepaid EDUs to now or later, we took multiple books.

We just said, okay, it's the owner's discretion.

And what we identified is that those total units, if they weren't included in the model, by the model being conservative, not including all the residential units, not including the commercial, or not including a portion of the residential projects with current activity,

not including the commercial and non-residential projects with current activity that there's a buffer and there's insurance there within the estimates.

So we did not think that the exercise of that option to prepay would impact the estimates of what's in the model because we call it above the line or below the line.

There's a healthy cushion below the line, not in the model.

of current activity projects, both residential, commercial, and non-residential.

So by prudently excluding a portion of the residential projects and excluding the commercial and non-residential projects with current activity, then if it's a buffer, it's an insurance within the model planning such that

There's a buffer there if the build-out does not happen as projected before you have to tap any general revenues for that.

And that was something we really wanted to follow up on.

And we found that the prudence and conservatism of having above the line what we include in the model and below the line what we don't include in the model.

Below the line what we don't include in the model of what with current activity is a buffer in insurance built into the model.

Further, I will just go further, within the first five years of the activity that is of current activity in the first five years, 25 to 29, that average is about 300 units total, commercial, residential, non-residential.

The conservators in the model goes further.

In the year six through 10, that

annual average is cut by a third down to 200.

So they actually reduce the annual average of the pace of build out in the out years.

Again, we saw that as a conservative move into providing some buffer insurance.

Now, as with all outlooks, I have to say as an economist that we like to talk about headwinds and tailwinds.

So there are risks.

None of us is perfectly clairvoyant.

and we take the information we have, we look at not only history, but also current trends, market, market, market, market.

It's all about the market.

And so we do that.

And so with the US and Virginia economic outlook and as well as the housing start estimates, there are some headwinds downside risk and there are some tailwinds upside risk.

So we have policy uncertainty with the US.

Inflation is a little sticky.

We've come way down.

from 8% in 2022, 3% in 2024.

The Fed has had a concerted effort to bring inflation down.

They have a double mandate of maximum employment and price stability, but we're not yet at the 2% target.

And there are some sticky portions that health care services and some housing costs are kind of keeping inflation taking longer to get to the 2%.

And so the long term target, that's their long term target.

They began easing interest rates, but it's going to be, they say it's going to be gradual.

They're going to do it on a month by meeting by meeting basis.

And so we expect that we're going to have some rates are going to be slower in terms of easing.

So we're going to have some higher for longer rates.

They're going to take their time.

They've said very clearly, we're going to take our time.

We won't necessarily do it every meeting.

And they're going to take a look going to see what the incoming data is for inflation.

And so that's some stickiness there.

So we're going to have some rates, not quite where we want them to be.

I don't think we ever going to see them 0.25% again.

for the federal funds rate.

That was something.

And so those tight credit conditions, that's going to pinch some businesses that are very rate sensitive, interest rate insensitive.

So then we have also the commercial market, the commercial real estate.

They roll over their loans.

much more frequently than we do our fixed mortgages.

And so every five to 10 years.

So those are coming due.

They're facing a higher rate environment.

So that's going to impact the real estate there.

Also, one of the key things the Fed wants to do is cool consumer and business demand to bring inflation down.

So that soft landing

coming into that.

And then another is the supply disruptions.

We have geopolitical risk with the wars in Middle East, in Europe, in Asia, and that leads to some supply and price shocks.

Our trade flows have been changing ever since the pandemic, ever since we had to realize we had to wait for something to come on

a ship through several hands to get here.

We realized we needed to have things closer that we needed.

And then also just to slow down in general, slower global growth.

China is the second largest economy behind the US.

We are the number one largest economy, but

China is a strong second.

And so they get a cold, the rest of us feel it because it's major source of goods and also selling.

We sell things there too.

So it's a major trade partner.

And India is the third largest, not as distant third largest, but fast growing where their economy is slow.

So that just pulls down overall slower global growth, which is where we sell our goods in America.

And so in Europe,

has had a hard time ever since invasion of Ukraine by Russia with the tremendous spike in their energy costs.

So their economies are having to figure out how to have different energy sources and has taken some transition.

So those are those global factors that are out there that we don't control, but certainly can impact us.

And then tailwinds, upside risk.

Well, if potential lower inflation sooner,

We're anticipating maybe some higher for longer rates, but in inflation, we get that last nudge faster than when we're being conservative and since we've had high inflation, but if that comes down to a material degree faster, that's a positive.

The soft landing to tight monetary policy.

in terms of jobs and wages.

They're balancing interest rates and jobs and wages, all that balance.

So that comes out nicely.

Also housing and manufacturing services, they're all impacted by the interest rates.

This uplift to the global and the slower growth recent

recent forecasts have been pushing up that global growth a little bit.

So every little bit helps because that's where we sell our goods and also where we're good our goods.

If we can get some reduction in the geopolitical risk in the wars, we've had a ceasefire that's just happened and trying to take hold and

so we can decrease some of that in those wars and reduce the political risk.

That will change because uncertainty is a tax on the economy.

If people are uncertain, if businesses are uncertain, they don't make investments.

and so those wars ending or lessening will open up some business investment globally.

Also, that increased business investment and any faster productivity growth, those are all some potential tailwinds as well as downside risk.

So that's as for all outlooks and I have that in every presentation I do and I do an economic update monthly to the finance officials of Virginia.

So with that,

We want to conclude.

Our summary is that the new development and growth in Greene County provides an opportunity to expand the county's tax base that can be used to help address existing water reliability and deferred and ongoing maintenance.

of your water and sewer system, as well as build future water and sewer capacity.

Alternatively, with diminished growth, the deferred and ongoing maintenance and your water supply reliability needs of the water and sewer system would have to be borne.

by the existing residents and businesses.

And I've seen that happen too.

So with that, of course, we have a much fuller analysis in the report.

I invite you to take a look at that and a full list of references.

I just have just a small font, as many as I could note on each slide, but we have several pages of references there.

And with that, Mr. Chairman concludes my remarks.

Thank you, Dr. Bailey.

Any questions, comments?

Yes, Dr. Bradley, thank you very much for an excellent presentation and the report itself.

You said that the numbers were conservative.

Did the numbers and the model take into consideration just what you brought up, mortgage interest rates going up, recessions?

On average, there's a recession every six years.

We've been kind of blessed with only three major ones in the last 30, 2001, 2007, and then the COVID.

And then finally, does it take into consideration pricing people out of the market?

I mean, we have the lowest rate of first-time buyers in history.

It's down to 24%.

Well, thank you so much, Dr. McGuigan.

Certainly, those are all factors you're concerned with related to housing.

One thing that has

One thing that has defied a lot of those concerns has been the demand.

A house goes on the market, it sells.

And so we think the affordability has been hit, but the market has not shown that since 2022.

And so one of the key factors related to that, so in 2022, when the Federal Reserve really increased interest rates,

to address inflation, which had to be done.

Everyone thought that housing prices were going to go down.

The finance officials, and I host the Virginia Finance Network every two weeks, we have not been able to go monthly since 2020.

We started doing the pandemic weekly, and then we went to biweekly, and our finance officials wanted to keep that check.

We have a meeting every two weeks.

And so the financial officials are saying, well, wait a minute, this is going to be like the great financial crisis.

So they're like, what's going to happen to our property taxes?

So everyone was in alert.

It didn't happen.

Sales went down, but the prices, home sales prices,

did not decline.

Their growth rate has finally kind of come down to more of a pre-pandemic level.

But initially, the home sale prices were still going up.

How does that be?

Well, then the economists started really peeling back that onion.

We have our dearth, our supply

of housing, lack of supply in housing has been building since the great financial crisis of 2007-09.

The housing market never began to build the houses back after the great financial crisis along that line.

So you can just see it in housing starts and building permits, that chart, it just goes down

after the great financial crisis.

Of course, we were flying high before the 07, 09.

It was built up a bubble.

And we went down, and we have never really come back at the pace at which we're building housing.

So the great financial crisis was 07, 09.

We're in 2025.

That's a long time to have an under supply of housing.

Along the way, the millennials

hit the peak age for housing formation, 2016, all the millennials were 40 or something like that, or the housing formation amongst the millennial generation really began to pick up.

And so you have this supply and demand imbalance.

And even though sales have gone down, even despite affordability issues, the supply and demand is just one of those market dictums

that when you have an undersupply significantly below the demand for housing, it leads to this kind of result.

But correct, we were concerned in 2022, we just knew that with the interest rates going up, home sale price is gonna go down.

They did not.

Home sale prices did not go down because the demand exceeded supply.

And today those metrics in the Charlottesville region show the same.

The metrics show there's still a supply, an undersupply of housing as compared to the demand here.

And that metric is the months of supply in the market, that metric, and they look at that monthly.

And it's about half of the normal amount recommended and also median days on market.

That's typically about 30 days and Greene counties was 14 days in November.

and 16 for the region.

So the market is telling us that there's a demand and that undersupply is nationwide.

We have a distinct undersupply and we have not kept up with the household formation since the great financial crisis.

Yeah, I wonder if in the last two years, part of the reason why it's so high and the prices are so high for about two years because of COVID, nobody was spending, right?

And a lot of people were able to kind of buy up, build up resources, and the numbers were so low then that we're going to get a rebound.

The next question I had is- Could I just mention something?

So personal savings, they drew those down.

Personal savings that they accumulated in 2020, they're gone.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has been watching the total personal savings, and that chart also goes down.

And so it actually dipped below the pre-pandemic level.

So yes, that has been fueling some of the consumer spending, but the

They drew that down pretty quickly.

Do you think that the EDU should pay for both buying into the system, because there's a huge infrastructure that exists, I think our assets are tens of millions of dollars, and also to pay for the expansion of that system?

So we have not analyzed your system's financials.

That was outside our scope.

But what I can say, it is a balancing act.

And what I did when I was executive director of Virginia Resources Authority, I was an advocate.

Not only did we have to underwrite the bonds and the portfolio management committee of the board, which includes

which when I was there included the former CFO of Lockheed Martin and the chief risk officer and a former FDIC official of a major regional bank.

So they know how to underwrite loans.

But also we are at VRA, we are extraordinarily examined by the rating agencies.

They wanna know every loan from every locality in the portfolio to actually rate the portfolio.

of that pool.

And it is often advocated by investors buying our bonds and also by the rating agency to force to say, we want a covenant in the bonds that say this community must raise their water and sewer rates to a certain number plus, you know, 100% plus

to cover the debt.

And I advocated that every community is not a cookie cutter.

That's a local decision.

So I can tell you, it's a local decision how you want to do rates, collection fees, and even any general revenue support.

And so that is a local decision based on the mix in your community.

For instance, in some communities, you have a lot of property that is maybe tax exempt.

And you don't ask half of the population to bear all the cost of the entire system.

It's very localized.

And so it's a balance.

It's a balance upon all those revenue streams.

And I always advocated not to put that bond covenant to tell that community, you must finance it this way.

And of course, if you use different sources, then you just need a model and a commitment to pay the bonds.

But I always advocated for community to make that selection.

They wanted to have, it's called coverage, and Davenport can tell you better than that.

But they want to tell you how you've got to set your rates, basically.

And my point is they want to tell you how to set your rates.

And I always advocated that if the community decided to fund their warden system a certain way,

They had a track record of that.

And we had the commitments in however way they did that, that we, that somebody in over yonder, I won't say just New York because sometimes they should not be telling them.

So I was, I advocated for the community to be able to come up with their own financial model and approach to that based on the needs of the community.

So I don't have a, that's my position that I really want to listen to the community and see how they want to approach

In your report, it listed that the EDUs were raised 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007.

They haven't been raised since then.

And I think one of the sentences that the Board of Supervisors should regularly update those fees is

And I think you wound up stating that with a 4% interest rate, they should be at 18,000 each.

Let me take a look at that.

I'll just have to look at that very specifically in that regard.

It was not our intent to be, again, my position is it is a local decision and how you do the combination.

And so whether you do, I'm very, I had a lot of conversations with S&P and Moody's about that.

And so

in terms of let the locality decide what mixture of revenues that make sense for them.

I'll take a look at that.

Yes, sir.

You also mentioned buying back EDUs.

So from what I understand, it was not really legal to actually prepay EDUs, but we did it.

So the question is, at two years, we're allowed to buy them back.

And we don't know how many of them are out there and what people paid for it.

Do you think it'd be a good fiscal policy to buy those back so that

Um, I don't think we have enough information on on what the prepaid

the full history of that.

And before that kind of selection, my approach would be ask for a full analysis.

And we did a summary to get our hands around what does the prepaid mean.

But before there's any kind of financial action taken, I would want to get a lot more detail and information in that regard.

I don't think we have enough information

for that assessment.

What we did notice is that of all the prepaids outstanding, if, I think it came to maybe 136 for one, I won't quote the numbers, but for all the prepaids outstanding, if they were exercised in the next period within the financial model, they're gonna kind of slough off

and so prepaying that now versus letting them work their way through the system, that would be a cost benefit analysis because it depends on how many they are and how much is gonna impact the system.

And so what we saw identified is that if all of them were used, if they were exercised today, the financial model doesn't count on them.

is not dependent on them because there's so much insurance with the amount of units currently associated with projects and activity.

There's a healthy buffer there.

So if they were all used, in our minds, we just took them off the table and then looked at it.

And if they were all used, the healthy buffer that you have there, as best you can determine on the data you have, on the projects with current activity, because we were interested in projects with current activity

not those in the pipeline, if you will.

So with current activity, there's more than enough to offset the water and sewer prepaids that were identified to us.

And then I got one last question.

Historically, two-thirds of homes are built in the rural areas on well and septic.

Obviously, that's changing.

But as late as 2021, it was still the two-thirds to one-third.

Did the model take that into consideration at all?

Not sure I'm following exactly, but let me just say, let me try to take that, walk through that.

So in terms of, I imagine, because I'm not a utility director, so I'll have to ask the utility director.

To me, that is related to what is the, that is a engineering, the question of water,

or those units that are on well in septic and the projections of that outside of this development.

To me, that's an engineering, a utility design conversation about needs beyond the model.

So I would defer to, and that's when I looked at my utility engineers, like, what do you have to say?

What is this all about?

And so I would certainly look for a utility engineer

a licensed engineer in that regard to talk about that and going beyond the current model.

My only caveat is I am a licensed engineer but not yet in Florida.

We're still doing the paperwork in Virginia.

I am in Florida but not yet in Virginia.

Thank you.

I think the key to answering your question is recognizing almost all of our costs are fixed costs.

The pipes in the ground are fixed.

When one of them breaks like it did today, sorry to people of Stanardsville, we got it fixed with a great, great team worked hard on it, fast on it.

Fixed costs, staffing, especially the small plants, fixed costs, the cost of the plants, the debt service, all fixed costs.

So if we get any new house in the system, we'll get

their EDU development fees, and we'll get them as a new customer.

And there's a big variable, and it's in the model, but it is something we can conservatively, prudently love.

How much water will they use?

Well, if they use a lot, we're going to charge them more because of our new rate structure.

If a new house is built in the countryside, we'll still take their development fees and put it towards those fixed costs.

They're not a burden on the system, but they're also not giving us utility fees.

Yeah, I think maybe I asked the question poorly.

What I mean is, let's pretend that you project that the market will bear 140 homes a year or 200 homes a year, and that you create a model based on that.

If you don't take into consideration the ones around water, you're going to wind up losing all that revenue, and then the model breaks down.

I can't stress this enough.

When we put the model together,

We used not a forecast of growth as most communities would, are forced to.

We use projects that have already started that we know they're coming online and we know where they are and we know which ones are connecting to us, which is the vast majority of the ones in the model.

And so the numbers we used for EDU development fees, the numbers we used for EDU development fees, the numbers we used for additional revenues from new customers was all looking at existing projects that have already started.

Projects like Creekside that short of a complete national meltdown, and that's what Dr. Bailey is addressing.

We will see both spots of money come through.

Other questions for Dr. Bailing?

Well, thank you very much for presenting that to us tonight.

Thank you very much.

Appreciate the efforts.

And I'm sure if we have any questions, we will relocate you.

We will find you.

They have all of my information.

They have me on 411.

We don't even have 411 anymore.

That's right.

Thank you so much.

It's an honor.

We appreciate the opportunity.

And it's been a real pleasure.

Good opportunity for us to work with the team here.

Thank you very much.

Kemp.

Yes, sir.

Whereas the Board of Supervisors of Greene County just desires to discuss and enclose me in the following matters.

Discussion, consideration, or interviews of prospective candidates for employment, assignment, appointment, promotion, performance, demotion, salaries, discipline, or resignation of specific public officers, appointees, or employees of any public body,

concerning the Agricultural and Forestal District Advisory Committee, whereas pursuant to Section 2.2-3711A1 of the Code of Virginia, such discussions may occur in a closed meeting.

Now, therefore, be it resolved that the Board of Supervisors of Greene County does hereby authorize discussion of the aforesaid matters in a closed meeting.

Okay, we have a motion and a second.

Roll call vote.

Mr. McGuigan?

Aye.

Mr. Goolsby?

Aye.

Mr. Lamb?

Aye.

Ms.

And the Chair votes aye.

Oh, can you unlock that?

I see problems on the horizon.

I'm going to tell you, I thought about it.

I thought about it.

I mean, it ruins it really.

But no, there has been no issues.

Zero.

That should have been no.

It all worked out.

Meeting is adjourned.

Is the recording on?

Is the recording running?

Is the recording running?

I didn't either.

Yeah, it's 6.30.

It must be on.

Motion to come into open session?

So moved.

Motion and a second.

Roll call vote.

Mr. McQuiggan?

Aye.

Mr. Goolsby?

Aye.

Mr. Lamb?

Aye.

Ms.

Durham?

Aye.

Do all members certify that only public business matters lawfully exempted from the open meeting requirement and only such matters as identified by the motion to enter into a closed meeting were discussed?

Roll call vote.

Mr. McQuiggan?

Yes.

Mr. Goolsby?

Aye.

Mr. Lamb.

I certify.

Ms.

And the chair certifies.

Okay, is there a second?

We have a motion and a second.

Roll call vote, Mr. Lamb.

Aye.

Ms.

Durrer.

Aye.

Mr. Goolsby.

Aye.

Mr. McQuiggan.

Aye.

And the chair votes aye.

Welcome everyone to the

Next would be adoption of the agenda before we ask for a motion for that.

We're just going to have Mr. McGuigan have a presentation under presentations.

It would be under a second thing.

I think they're still working.

You want to just move to public comments?

Yeah, no, we'll do that first, but we need to get to agenda.

That's it.

So just so everybody knows, we have to move that to presentations because it's PowerPoint.

So I entertain a motion for the adoption of agenda.

Is there a second?

Second.

Okay, motion and a second.

Roll call vote.

Mr. Lamb?

Aye.

Ms.

Durrer?

Aye.

Ms.

Goolsby?

Aye.

Mr. McGuigan?

Aye.

Chair votes aye.

Kemp.

Welcome.

Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.

Welcome, sir.

Thank you.

Thank you very much.

There were some slides that I was going to use, but I don't really need them, so we'll just get right into it.

Very simple.

First of all, I commend you all for being prepared, getting this report from Virginia Tech to try to reevaluate the

New Home Start projections on which the financing of the reservoir is supposed to be based.

I struggled to find the water and sewer model that's referred to throughout those papers.

It's not in them.

And I went to the county website.

I couldn't find it there either.

So I hope you all are more fortunate than I. From what I can see, it doesn't exist.

But it's someplace I wish I had it.

Despite all the facts and figures in that report,

Oh, well, that was a slide that I was going to use, but I don't need it.

So whoever's in charge of slides, you can just skip them.

For me, anyway, I don't really need them.

This is really, I'm going to keep it simple, because it is, really.

Despite all the facts and figures in that lengthy report that you've read, that I read, there are only two publicly available figures.

that I think really need to be taken account of in order to make a meaningful judgment as to where this thing's headed.

One of them is the population projection for Greene County between now and 2050, which would be approximately the maturity date of any bonding that you might do.

And that population figures right there in the census is 5,000.

945 people more or less are expected to move here to Greene County between now and 2050.

And the other number also publicly available is that Greene County's average household consists of 2.66 people, 2.66 people.

So unless there's a dramatic change in either of those numbers, the number of housing starts needed to accommodate the predicted population

annually is 83.

That's what you need.

You divide the new population by the number of people per household, and you wind up with 83 units.

So if 83 new housing starts can be created each year for the next 25 years, you'll get the number needed to accommodate all the folks moving in, unless they all parachute in tomorrow, which they're not going to do.

Now, I don't know how that's going to work out in terms of funding.

I don't know what your EDUs would have to be in order to pay off your reservoir debt.

But beneath and behind all the numbers that you're probably swimming in your head like they were in mine, those are the two critical ones that I think you should be looking at.

And the total number of housing units that would be needed is 2,234 over the 25-year period.

Right now, you have nearly 3,600 in the pipeline, way more than you'll need now or for the next 25 years.

See, I didn't need my slides.

Okay, thank you all very much.

Next, we have Mr. Ken Copeland.

Now, am I reading this correctly?

Mr. Mingeldorf is ceding time to you.

Okay, great.

Okay.

Thank you.

down arrow on that.

The down?

No.

I was trying to continue.

Oh, you put them all together?

Oh, okay.

Okay.

Yes, you do.

Thank you.

Let me start with the punchline.

When incorporating Virginia Tech's population forecast, an average number of persons per housing unit into the county water and sewer capital project funding plan model, one arrives at a drastically different result than what's been presented to date.

Actually, the county faces a $33 million shortfall by 2034.

The county provided to me the numbers in their water and sewer capital projects funding plan to contain data as to annual housing starts, operating revenues, and expenditures and debt service.

With that data, I was able to construct a table that would allow anyone to explore the impact of different assumptions as to housing starts on the funding plan.

From that, it was a simple matter to input the more accurate data from Virginia Tech report into the county's model so as to derive the resulting revenue expenditure and net after debt service.

This table presents the county's funding plan numbers.

According to their assumptions, there would be a $6.1 million net surplus after debt service as of 2034.

However, as Mr. Zutz has detailed, these numbers rely on flawed housing start estimates.

As he discussed, the Virginia Tech Report allows estimation of housing starts based upon their validated population and projections, along with their estimated average number of persons per housing unit calculation.

I apologize.

Yep.

The net result is that the population growth presented by Virginia Tech would support an expected 2,350 new housing units between 2030 and 2050, or an average of 87 per year.

My numbers are slightly different from Bill's in that there are two numbers presented in the Virginia Tech report, very minor, 2.53 per housing unit, 2.66 per household.

This graph is prepared by Scott Mingeldorf using the data from Virginia Tech report illustrates the extent of the flaw in the housing start.

The black line on the bottom represents the number of households, i.e.

occupied housing units in the county based on census historical data and projections from that Virginia Tech report.

The blue line

slightly above it represents the corresponding number of total housing units and thus reflects the sustainable number of housing units accounting for vacancies as well.

The red line in the graph shows the housing unit historical census numbers through 2024 and then for 2025 to 2034

the county's housing start estimates.

Note the sharp increase beginning in 2026.

It's obvious that the county's housing unit start estimates would result in total housing units far exceeding what would be a sustainable level.

The green line in the chart begins at 2025 shows the estimated housing units based upon the Virginia Tech data.

They're similar to the sustainable level supporting the accuracy of the 87 housing units per year.

This table now presents funding plan numbers using the 87 housing unit starts.

Using the county's model, the result is a $33 million shortfall as of 2034 and a $43 million shortfall over the 30-year debt service.

How might this shortfall be eliminated?

Well, where housing units starts to be 55% above

those supported by the Virginia Tech data every year, the debt service would be balanced after 30 years.

However, there would still remain a $22 million shortfall in the near term, the first 10 years, which would be gradually made up over the following 20 years.

Where annual housing starts 2.4 times that Virginia Tech data,

the debt service in the first 10 years would be balanced.

However, note that even these heroic assumptions are under what the county has estimated as housing starts.

As Virginia Tech's data suggests the likelihood of either of these scenarios to be minimal, increased EDU fees could also be used to eliminate the shortfall given the short likely trend in housing starts.

While Virginia Tech suggests EDUs of $18,000 would reflect inflation since the last increase, county's model in conjunction with the Virginia Tech data show the EDU fees would need to be raised to some $19,350 in the water and sewer balance out the debt service.

noted there would still, however, be a $19 million shortfall in the first 10 years, made up over the following 20 years.

That result is a function of the nature of the funding plan, which factors in revenue from EDUs for new housing starts and customer usage fees.

Revenue from EDUs depends only upon the new starts in that year.

However, revenue from usage fees depends upon the accumulated number of housing that has been started that is available.

And thus, the accurate smooth trends suggested by the Virginia Tech data results in lower usage fees in the early years finally made up more in the later years.

The county's housing start estimates front load

housing unit growth, which does make the numbers balance in the first 10 years.

However, these housing starts estimates have been shown to be unrealistic.

As demonstrated by the use of Virginia Tech data in the county's funding model, a much more reasonable forecast is that the county can expect a $33 million shortfall by 2034.

Without other fee changes, this shortfall would need to be addressed by accessing the general fund.

Increasing EDU fees would provide some relief, but even the inflation adjustment of $18,000

results in a shortfall.

Mr. Copeland, we're at six minutes.

Can you bring it on home?

Yep.

All right.

County must develop a founding plan for the water and sewer project.

However, that plan must be realistic and data driven.

Thank you.

Thank you, sir.

Very much.

Good evening.

Good evening, I'm James Higgins.

You may recall at the November 12th board meeting, I asked the board to consider raising the EDU fees to $15,000 each for water and sewer.

You declined.

I was not disconsolate or bereft, but I can't help noticing that in the Virginia Tech study, it advocates raising these fees to $18,000 each.

Now, if you look at page 18 of the 83 page study remarks, if the current EDU fee is adjusted for inflation, it is estimated to be around $18,000.

That's a substantial increase from what I was asking for.

The document notes that in 2007, when the EDU fees were raised, they represented a

100% increase over what was previously being charged.

They were set at a time when the cost of the reservoir was estimated to be $35 million.

Davenport, of course, now estimates the cost of the reservoir to be between anywhere from $75 to $100 million.

So at the time of the EDUs in 2007, they represented about 10% of the price of a home as according to federal data.

Now the current median home price in Greene County is $450,000.

The proportion that EDUs constitute is now only about 4% of that home price.

So a substantial reduction.

The Virginia Tech Study qualifies raising the EDU fees to $18,000 by remarking that this might push developers to go to less dense rural parcels to build their subdivisions.

But of course, you can only build two houses, or rather one house per two acres in a rural area versus eight in a higher density area.

So the costs are substantially increased and septic and water systems have gone up substantially in price over the past five or six years.

In fact, last year, the cost of installing a well pump pressure tank and wiring was nearly $12,000.

So in conclusion, I hope you will revisit the idea of increasing the EDU fees.

I'm not calling for an $18,000

Thank you.

Thank you, Ms.

Tiggins.

Appreciate it.

Roger Swikert.

I don't have as much detail as the last three people, but I am concerned with the water and sewer effort that the county is undertaking and all the numbers that they had presented tonight as well as in the reports.

I'm looking forward to studying them further myself.

Just wanted to express some concern, particularly for our seniors and what effect that's going to have on them.

And as I get more familiar with the proposals and the

I'll hopefully can have some intelligent answers or questions to ask the next time.

In the meantime, I noticed on my way here tonight, another problem we're having in this city is we're turning very much into Chicago in a sense of what the traffic is on our roadways, particularly on 29 at rush hour.

I mean, it took me a whole lot longer to get here, even all the crossways that you could have taken a shortcut maybe.

We're crowded and you couldn't turn left off of 29.

Had to go all the way past the intersection at 33 just to turn around and come back.

So I hope that that is something else that the board and the state highway department are talking about.

And finally, just one small thing out front here.

That's all I have.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Ms.

Good evening, everybody.

I'm going to bring this subject up again.

We have now lost six homes in beautiful Greene County, and the last one was a farm on Dundee Road.

I went by that library again.

where the heart and soul of me when I was on this board, and I looked at the real estate, I know it's supposed to be natural plantings, but I'm going to tell you one thing, and that is, if somebody was smoking either or

on, doing else, or afterwards, they threw a cigarette in that broom sage, and I know it's supposed to be next, but we're going to lose a library senior center.

Now, I think it's time that somebody or Mr. Taylor go down there and take a weed eater and cut them down, or...

you're going to be in debt you think you're in debt on water and sewer you do not know if you would have to replace the library senior center now I spoke to you about this before and nothing was done except maybe got cleaned up a little bit but I can't see anything was done and it breaks my heart that y'all sat here and haven't done anything about it

Now, I love you all, and I respect you all, and I've known that boy a long, long time.

I was at his wedding when he got married.

But I'm going to tell you, something has to be done.

A farmer almost could have lost his life on Dundee Road, but something has to be done.

Now, if you can't take time to drive in there and look at it,

Thank you, Ms.

Bertholder.

Seems pretty reasonable.

I mean, I saw it today, actually, just driving by.

Yes, ma'am.

That particular garden was put in by the library, and per our MOU, there are certain areas we maintain and certain areas they maintain.

and I did talk to the director of the regional library and they did clean it up, but it's still the same kinds of immediately after that.

Yeah, but it requires... So it requires...

either staff or volunteers to be on it all the time because you can clean it up one day and the next day it's a mess again.

And the idea of it, as they explained it to me, was to put in Virginia native plants so that once it's established and grows out, then it wouldn't need that meat.

And so it was kind of in the long run

something that would be good pollinators, you know, good, you know, blah, blah, whatever.

I think we should.

Yeah, we can use goats if we need to.

Or how about the turkeys and standards of the turkeys?

If they ask, would the board be okay with us paying for the new plants to go in there?

But if they don't reconsider, I'm just going to get Ms.

I'm losing control of the meeting All right, we'll do something about it.

Thank you, ma'am.

Yes, ma'am.

I know.

You know where I live.

Welcome, sir.

Good evening, Mr. Chairman, Board of Supervisors.

I want to commend you guys for finally putting together a report, comprehensive, inclusive, that shows the situation that we have inherited by taking over the RSA water and sewer.

And, I mean, this report lays it out step by step, tells you exactly what needs to be done,

tells you the penalties and deadlines that we're up against to get these projects finished has a financial plan involved with it.

It's been audited.

And I'm saying you've done such great work here, and we've been playing with this thing for 20 years now, and we need to move on with the project.

2008, I was working with the town, the county, RSA,

Tom Perriella was our congressman then.

Obama was doing the shovel-ready projects.

WW Associates had done water and sewer for Stanardsville, had done the loot for the water so we fixed the pressure, fixed the pipes in the sewer.

$11 million.

We applied for that shovel-ready project.

Unfortunately, we didn't get it.

Everybody in Charlottesville got all that money, I think.

But my point is, that was 2008, $11 million.

Now we're at 2025.

It's over $20 million just to fix the water.

We cannot continue to drag our feet, put our heads in the sand.

We need to take this plan that we finally have and start implementing it.

We've got financing vehicles available to us.

that we can use to pay for this.

I don't want to have to pay increased fees and EDUs and stuff, but there is a balance somewhere where it's practical, pragmatic, to get our water and sewer in shape.

If we have another repeat of what we had last summer, we're sucking Rapidan dry.

I mean, I don't care what it

projected growth, whatever you got.

We've got people here now that need water.

And we need to get that reservoir built, maintained, meet all the other deadlines we got, get our house in order, get the financing in order, do it orderly so that we're not strangled to death with huge, outrageous bills.

And you've got the basis of it right here.

So I encourage you guys

to move forward with this and let the public know what you need to assist in this with the bonding or whatever.

And let's get going.

Let's get it done.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Mr. Scott Winslow.

Mr. Chairman, board.

I actually have some prepared remarks and I was wondering how much to deviate from them.

Let me start with this.

It's interesting to me that we continue to debate our county's water and sewer needs.

I've watched the county as the county has grappled with this issue as we have debated and delayed the project for decades.

We've already spent huge amounts of money and time and energy toward building a reservoir.

We used to call it a water impoundment project in order to meet the county's needs.

It's been more than 20 years and we are now at the end of the process.

We have permits from the Army Corps of Engineers and the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality that will expire if we don't get started soon.

The county has received studies from Davenport and last week another from Virginia Tech.

Both these include detailed analysis and they both support the assumptions regarding projected housing starts here in Greene and how to pay for it.

Dr. Bailey just a few hours ago told us that there were many significant buffers built into the model that we have.

All this tells me that our efforts of the past many years are coming to fruition and we will be able to start the project soon.

These studies also tell me that there is more than enough growth coming to Greene County to support the financial model developed by our water and sewer department.

That model shows the user fees will cover the obligations.

You know, bad things happen when localities and municipalities neglect basic infrastructure such as water and sewer.

The City of Los Angeles is dealing with that right now.

Will there be enough water to fight our fires?

for our citizens on public water.

Will they have enough safe, reliable drinking water?

We all know that we need to solve our water issues.

We should take the thoughtful, detailed, professional advice of the studies we have commissioned and the plans of our own water and sewer staff have developed to pay for this.

We have a window of opportunity now, and it's starting to slip away.

Please don't delay this any longer.

It is a matter of public safety as well as a requirement of the state of Virginia.

Thank you.

Thank you, board members.

I'm not here to talk about water tonight for a change.

I just wanted to remind everybody that this is an election year.

Of course, every year is an election year.

But specifically, the two board members, Marie Durrer and you, Steve Catalano,

are going to be on the ballot this year, so paperwork is required to, I have to have it by June 17th for any candidates running for the local offices to be on the November ballot.

There's also school board for Midway and Stanardsville as well, and then of course the November ballot will have governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general,

and our member of House of Delegates.

So just a heads up, I have paperwork if anyone wants to stop by the office and pick up a packet.

Yes, anyone joining us online, if you're on the Zoom link,

and you wish to address the board, please use the raise your hand feature.

You can find that under the reactions button.

And I will ask you to unmute once you raise your hand.

We have some speakers.

Great.

Can you guys hear me okay?

Yep.

Awesome.

All right.

Good evening.

Appreciate you guys taking the time.

Sorry I couldn't be there in person.

Would like to have been.

I'm actually providing some public comment for my colleague, Mr. Bill Martin.

And I've read over these comments.

I fully support everything that's within them.

I'm going to read those through for you guys.

So I have a few things I'd like to consider.

I'd like you guys to consider Board of Supervisors for Commitment to the White One Pump Storage River Project.

They're sort of listed out here in bullet form.

So the need for a reservoir was laid out in great detail by the Rapid Island Service Authority in 2000.

The board was seized with a critical shortage of water, 2002 drought, which we're all aware of.

Chairman Steve Catalano was on the board that spearheaded efforts to locate and purchase the real estate for the Whiterun project.

Every board since that time has worked toward making the reservoir a reality.

The reservoir project is a foundational piece of Greene's comprehensive plan to bring that back forward to everybody here as part of Impact Greene.

Supervisors Lamb and Durrer were on the board when the Rapid Ant Service Authority presented the last major obstacle to progress.

Marie and Davis tasked Greene's two RSA board appointees with getting Greene out of RSA so that we could advance the White Run project.

Greene County has since invested over $17 million in direct costs in the White Run project.

With debt payments, these costs are over $31 million.

Evidence to support the project was further laid out in the 50-year water supply plan mandated by the state.

Engineering studies are now complete.

All permits and state federal agencies have been obtained.

Please also further consider the RSA managed green water and sewer networks for decades, keeping costs artificially low, delaying infrastructure upgrades.

The demand for greater public water supply is more critical than ever.

The table has been set for this board because of the hard work by previous boards and the Greene County staff, highlight the Greene County staff and the previous boards.

The final steps required are not site selection, data collection, permits, stream bank credits, engineering work, more studies or financial analysis.

The work that remains is simply to finance the project.

The final steps, while straightforward or difficult for the elected board, but only the board can complete them.

They are

We need a public commitment by this board to the White Run Reservoir.

One.

Two, the purchase of a bond or bonds to finance the project, either in one package or phases.

And three, deciding how to use the multiple revenue streams to finance that bond.

Only you and your board can determine the share of each revenue source to meet that bond.

We respect your prerogative to make this decision.

And we appreciate how difficult this will be.

So to sum up, water is absolutely needed.

Okay, I'm good.

We'll hand it off there.

Finally, we understand how hard is a decision for you as the board, and we trust you guys.

We just need you guys to move forward.

Paul Riff.

Sixth.

Okay.

How about now?

Can you hear me okay?

We can.

Thank you.

Sorry.

Thank you.

I sent an email comment.

So if you've heard from me twice tonight, somehow I apologize.

I am so glad that so many citizens have spoken up and spoken well for this project.

since they've been so eloquent and had all these numbers and figures, I'll just put it simple.

Greene County's got to put its big boy pants on and make this happen.

This has got to be the biggest infrastructure that Greene's ever seen.

And I'm sure a lot of people might be apprehensive about what that means for us now and over the next 30 to 50 years.

I'm apprehensive about what it means if we don't do this and if we don't do it now.

We've got such a wonderful comprehensive plan for Ruckersville and the surrounding area.

We've just got to make it happen.

We've got to make this county continue to be a wonderful place to raise families and to prosper.

And this is the only plan that's come forward to make it happen.

So let's do it.

Thank you, sir.

I believe that is.

Okay, does anyone else that hasn't signed up in the audience tonight want to speak?

Yes, sir.

Thank you.

Fred Turk, Stanardsville District.

Thank you.

In regard to the vegetation at the library, it's native grasses, and most native grasses are either fire adapted or fire dependent.

It means they need fire to propagate.

and if done at the right time, if you do a cool, what they call a cool burn in the winter months, fall and winter, you just top kill the vegetation.

You don't kill the roots.

Once the vegetation starts to grow, it's gonna kill the roots of the vegetation.

I suggest that maybe you contact your fire department, get them out there with a brush truck this time of year and burn that natural vegetation off.

It's gonna look bad for a little while.

It's gonna be black and smutty

But in the spring, the stuff's gonna regrow and it's gonna grow up and be just as lush as it was before.

Ask any farmer that burns off their pasture, what it looks like from when it gets burned to the springtime.

So if done properly, I think you can one, remove a lot of the vegetation that could potentially catch fire in a situation like this.

and under the guides of the fire department there with the brush truck, there's unlikely that it's going to go anywhere.

So maybe contact your fire department, talk to me about doing a prescribed fire in the little area.

We're talking a little area, but it's still the same science and the same thing that goes behind us.

Thank you, sir.

Thank you.

Once we get permission from the library, please.

Okay, well, I appreciate all comments.

I'm sure the board does also, and thank you all for being concise and speaking your mind and sharing your views.

Number 10 is presentations.

Is there a second?

Second.

We have a motion and a second.

Roll call vote Mr. Lamb.

Aye.

Ms.

Durrer.

Aye.

Mr. Goolsby.

Aye.

Mr. McQuiggin.

Aye.

And the chair votes aye.

Ms.

Mr. Collier and I go back a long way.

I want to mention for the retirement of the animal shelter, Greene, Stanardsville, Virginia, where he has dedicated 20,000 years of service to the animal shelter, Greene, Stanardsville, Virginia, and providing leadership to each other staff involving youth.

and where I ask you to find about the end of the chapter and all the others in the time of history.

Please like us, we will continue to inspire you to feel for people who are loved and told to say, by the end of the chapter of the chapter, whereas the members of the United States, who should express that these are the details of the information and the contribution here in the United States.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Yes, thank you.

And I wanted to recognize that we have our two other staff here.

And I also especially wanted to recognize that Mrs. Bunny Swanson is the new animal shelter manager.

What's great about, I told Glenn this, it's a sign of a good manager when you can build up a bench strength.

And Bunny has been with the animal shelter, I'll say her whole life, but technically since 2016.

So eight going on nine years.

Hello, girls.

Hello.

and she deserves it.

She can give my dogs basically just come along with her.

Awesome.

Mr. McGuigan, you're up.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Are we able to correct that?

We're able to, yeah.

Okay, this is terrible.

And it's down.

Yeah.

Yeah.

You don't have to point it anywhere.

The laser pointer, you mean?

All right.

All right.

So I wanted to look at some of the Virginia Tech presentation and mainly looking at populations, housing, probability, and its effects on the revenue that we're looking at.

The

A lot of the technical stuff I think was really covered by Mr. Copeland quite well.

I was hoping that tech people were here and to thank them personally for the study.

And I would like to say go Hokies.

However, I'm a Cavalier, so it won't be extended to the football season.

Next.

So the Greene County population in 2021 was 21,370.

In 2050, it'll be 27,315.

The Delta is 5,945 people.

The people per household in Greene County for the last 20 years have been 2.62.

So what that means is that

There's only going to be 2,269 homes, not the 3,528.

And the difference is, let's pretend you owned a restaurant and you had 35 reservations.

You're not going to be able to take that to the bank unless there's 20 people show up.

And that's the problem with saying that, you know, we've got 354 on the books.

Next.

Oops.

So it comes down to housing starts always have and always will be market driven.

You have to have the people to buy it.

And it's the converse of the field of dreams.

If you build the thing, it will come.

It really is supply and demand.

And only if the population numbers support it will they come in.

And if, let's pretend we did build 3,528 homes.

We are going to buck a 20-year trend.

You need 1.6 people for housing.

And that's just not going to happen.

That's just not going to happen.

Next.

So for some reason, it got cut up no matter what.

The fonts are completely different than mine.

But when you look at it, the growth projection is

This is really awful.

The very top of the slide is basically the Virginia text predictions.

So when you look at growth in the first decade of this millennia, we were growing at 27%.

The next decade, a half.

to 11%.

And that's where we are right now.

We've got 4% through the first four months of this quarter.

And when you extrapolate out, that's 11.5% for annual growth.

Welding Cooper just came out with an article in 2020.

The growth in Virginia is the lowest in 100 years.

Now, it's regionally different, but it just means that people are leaving our

our state and our growth is really affected.

Even our own department of planning in the comprehensive plan wrote after a fairly consistent growth in housing stocks of residential building permits, Greene County has dropped in the last decade.

Now that was in 2023.

So why all of a sudden is it different?

And we're going to build 3,500 homes next.

So

They're going to tell you, well, water scarcity scared away everybody.

And that's why we couldn't build these houses before.

Well, number one, the reservoir is three years away.

We're going to have to deal with that drought.

More importantly, the Board of Supervisors has never denied a residential permit for a development based on water scarcity.

Last year, in the midst of this horrible drought that was mentioned, we approved 450 homes

for the Blue Ridge Meadows project.

So it has nothing to do with it.

It really is housing starts are motivated by the market next.

So what's limiting growth or what factors can limit growth different than what was presented in the tech study?

Well, we talked about interest rate fluctuations.

recessions.

There's been three major ones in the last 30 years.

And then the county consistently, in every paper I have ever read about the water plan and comprehensive plans, they consistently over call the amount of homes that we can build.

And the error rates are really, really gross.

I'll talk about that a little bit later.

So the probable home starts predicted by the population growth is 2,269.

Two thirds, however, of the homes built between 2010 and 2021

followed the trend that we've had forever in the county that two-thirds of them were on well and septic.

Now, that has changed in the last few years, but the question is, is that going to remain?

And regardless, some of those homes, even projected by the Virginia Tech study, which again is 2,300, not 50, 3,500, some of those are going to be on water and sewer.

And that has to be cooked in because even a 10% difference is massive.

Next.

So, you know, the big

The big sucking sound, however, is the fact that Charlottesville just rezoned in 2024.

And that rezoning does several things.

It increases the population density that they have.

They have 21,000 lots in that town.

And you'll see why this is important.

They mandate lower income housing.

And the third thing is they are massively financially supporting their development.

Now, I love Greene County, and I know why I came here, but most of the people coming here, five, six of our population works outside the county, and they're working in Charlottesville, really.

So when you look at it, residential A zones went up from one housing unit to three.

Residential B and C, they can go up to eight.

And then if they throw in four lower income housing units, they can go up to 12.

In all the other areas, one in 10 units must be affordable.

And their definition of affordable is a lot different than ones that I've heard.

It's 50% to 60% of the salary of the median in that town.

So the salary is $124,000.

So they're shooting for people who earn $60,000 to $74,000, making it very affordable.

And that's the reason why they come here.

And so I don't know if I could buy a house there that's especially in lower income.

I'd rather be by the restaurants, you know, by the movie theaters, by the entertainment.

So to show you how much they're going to support funding in May.

They devoted $2 million to a housing project by the Piedmont Alliance to create 40 to 60 lower income housing units or moderate income housing units.

They then went in conjunction with the Habitat for Humanity and the Piedmont Housing Alliance for a $22 million project and made an 8.7 million.

So the population projections say that we're only going to be able to build

2,200 homes.

We're saying that we're going to be able to build 3,500, and that's what these models, these financial models are built around.

That's a huge difference, right?

It's a 33% difference.

Next slide.

So the county predictions historically have been pretty horrible, even in the short term.

So in the regional water supply,

Volume 3 in 2011, it was predicting for 2020, nine years in the future, that we would be at 23,000 population by 2020.

So nine years in advance, they were predicting that we'd be at 23,000.

We're not even at 23,000 right now.

So that estimate was off by 16%.

Again, if you extrapolate to that, to their model, we're in big trouble.

We are in massive trouble.

Then when you take a look at their estimates for new homes on water, same interval, they predicted 1,310.

We wound up with 348.

That's a 241% error.

even though I'm not that bad.

So the populations for this nine-year period were grossly odd.

And I think we have to expect more of the same.

Next.

So the past is prolonged.

So what I'm going to show you is data.

And I like data because it tells you the truth, especially statistical data.

Next.

So I took the RSA data for the last 20 years.

I went and got their financial reports.

And it shows how many new accounts they have, how many people basically came on the water system.

and I got it from their financial documents.

So this is the real stuff.

It's hard to see the small diagrams, but that's 0 to 20, 2020 to 2009, and then 2012 to 2021.

Then I got the five years that we're in the Virginia Tech study.

where they went in the table and they showed how many new units came on with water.

So when you look at this, the good thing about this data is it takes in all those fluctuations we're talking about.

It takes in recessions, it takes in the market changes, right?

So what you see here also is the numbers are grossly up and down all over the place.

So, you know, we started out with 2001 with 72, pretty nice numbers for a while.

And then in 2018, it went down to three.

That was just seven years ago.

The high is 183.

Hit it once.

And that's the only time in 25 years that we went above 100.

Next.

So what I did is I then plotted that out according to numbers.

Now, it's not a graph, which

I'm not that good.

It's a histogram.

But what you can see is everybody knows about a normal curve, right?

It's that bell curve, right?

You get right in the median and everything to the right and left.

It's the same.

That's not what our housing does.

It's a skewed data.

So what you can see is there's a peak.

But at that peak, it just plummets.

And it plummets at 90, which is not good for their model because their model depends on those stars, which are 135.

Next.

So what I then did is I predicted, created a standard deviation, took all that data and said, all right, what's the probability that you're going to be able to hit these numbers?

And I did two different ones.

One was 135,000, what they're telling us we're going to do every year between now and 2050.

And then I did 87 housing starts because that's the one that works in the model.

And unfortunately, it works with a slightly higher EDU of 19,395.

When you look at that data, what you notice is the average is 67, but the standard deviation is 38.

Standard Deviations, the first standard deviation brings in about 62% of all numbers, right?

The next standard deviation brings in about 92 and the third one is 97.

But what it shows is the variation year to year is four.

And then when you look at the housing starts, you can kind of see that 135 housing starts, 1.77 is their standard deviation.

So if you're trying to shoot for 135, you're getting almost two standard deviations away.

So you can have numbers that, again, go down well beyond where they need them to be.

Unlike the 87, how it starts where the standard deviations much now, meaning you're going to hit that a lot more often than 135 starts.

The final thing is a 95% confidence interval.

And what that is is saying, how many times are you going to hit that number that you need?

So basically, when you look at it with an EVU of 19, 350, 87 housing units, you're going to hit your number 70% of the time.

Next.

When you use their numbers, there's only a 4% chance with that EVU that we're going to actually be successful.

So what that's going to mean is they're not going to be able to cover the debt service and that debt service 24 out of 25 times is going to fall on real estate tax only.

The standard deviation is smaller for the homes like we talked about and the water and sewer model will be projecting housing projections almost every year that are in deficit and we're going to have to make it up with only real estate tax.

Next.

So would you try to buy a house where you couldn't make the payment 96% of the time?

Of course not.

So can we wait on raising the levels to the necessary level?

Every time we do, right, the EDUs are going to have to be higher because the number of homes that are sharing it are less.

So we can't wait.

We need to get them right as soon as possible.

And the EDUs are necessary to offset long-term deficits.

Next.

So the county revenue last year was $54 million per household taxes were $6,820.

Real estate taxes were only $20 million.

If we have to take these deficits out of real estate taxes, even a $1 million loss, and we're talking about a $7 million payment that we're not going to make, that's about a 5% increase in real estate taxes.

Next.

So there's a lot of information on this slide, but we can't afford to do this.

Each one of these houses is going to bring at least one child, because it's 2.6.

But I'm assuming that only six cents of a kid is going to be in that house.

Each child that comes on board, we lose 1,597% of tax money, meaning the cost of schooling wipes out all that real estate tax.

So we're actually losing.

And when you look at it, if we hit their projections, it's a massive, massive loss of money.

Next.

So using their model that we're estimating that we're going to actually lose $35 million in the first nine years.

And that $35 million, again, has to be made up of real estate taxes out of a total pool of about $36 million.

So we're going to have basically real estate taxes that have to increase 100%.

Next.

So I don't think that's all in common, in my opinion.

Next.

Thank you.

Thank you, Mr. McGuigan.

Next, Ms.

Melissa Meador, Director of Emergency Services.

Thank you.

Mr. Chairman, members of the board, appreciate you allowing us to speak this evening.

I do have two individuals with me.

This is Cameron Hoard, Assistant Chief with Rutgersville Volunteer Fire Company, EMS Captain Kirsten Parkinson with Rutgersville as well.

Do you have my slides?

I do apologize for not getting these slides to you last week.

I've been a little under the weather for the past couple of weeks.

Tis the season.

Unfortunately.

Yeah.

Is it correct?

Is that your pup?

You can go to the second slide, Jim, if you don't mind.

So we're here this evening to discuss the first responder license that Rutgersville Volunteer Fire Company currently possesses.

I'm going to wait for the back one.

There we go.

Okay.

So in order for our volunteer fire companies to respond to certain EMS calls, they have to obtain a license through the Virginia Department of Health Office of EMS.

Two of our three fire departments currently have that license.

The Dyke Volunteer Fire Department is currently working towards that.

And we expect that to happen sooner rather than later.

So along with this, the licensing requirements, the agency that possesses the license has to be inspected every two years.

Greene EMS just had theirs a couple weeks ago and passed, but it is when the state comes in, they physically come to your department and they go over

everything related to EMS, their personnel files, their training files, their apparatus that's licensed, everything top to bottom.

It is a very time consuming task, requires a lot of time, a lot of energy, and just a lot of hours that, you know, our volunteers just sometimes don't have.

Next.

So Cam and Kirsten and the chief of Ruckersville, ENOCOR, came to see me a couple Fridays ago.

and they have requested to basically forfeit their license over to the state and want to come under the Greene County EMS license.

You're starting to see that a little bit more.

A few departments in Albemarle County have done it.

Not sure about Orange.

I didn't check with Orange.

Mr. Catalano, you may know, but I'm not 100% sure there.

But we are starting to see this happen more and more because it is so time consuming.

we actually support this request and you can go to the next slide if you don't mind this is something we actually brought to the fire departments back at the emergency services advisory board maybe years ago maybe and there were some issues there and it just never went anywhere but there are advantages to this with them coming under our license it's going to be a different standard of care they're going to have to

be released under our standards, our policies and procedures.

So you're getting some consistency there that didn't exist before.

We would ensure that they meet all training and licensing requirements, their data compliance, which is very important.

It's very important for grants that they have to hit a certain mark.

We can be responsible for that.

They would fall under our quality management program.

and be held to the same standards that we hold Greene County EMS employees to.

Ruckersville would become more integrated with us, which is always a good thing, always a good thing.

and then they would be released under us and there's more opportunities there for clinical experience riding with us, those type of things.

Probably the big thing, we're always looking for ways to sustain our volunteers, right?

I've heard you all say that.

This is one good way to do that because we are going to take, if this is something the board supports, we're going to take all that paperwork, all that administrative stuff, that entire workload off of them and just let them worry about running calls.

Okay.

A few not so good things maybe that you want to think about.

There's a liability issue there.

Probably not any more than what you have with Greene County EMS.

You can go one more.

Don't mind.

Thank you.

It does increase our workload.

but it lessens their workload and that's very important.

And then of course the memorandum of understanding requirement.

I would suggest that if we do this we do have an MOU.

I do have a copy of the MOU that Albemarle County is using with their volunteer fire departments.

I was hoping to kind of get that done the last couple of weeks and it just hasn't happened.

So you know tonight basically what I'm looking for is support from the board.

Do you think this is a good idea?

Because we don't we don't want to waste a lot of time and energy on paperwork and negotiations with an MOU if we don't think this is something that you want to support.

So that's kind of the purpose of us being here tonight.

Certainly be happy to answer any questions or concerns.

And if you do support it, could Ms.

Shafrick and I have the authority to negotiate with them?

Does this need to come back to the board?

Can we give the chairman authorization to sign the MOU if we both agree?

Well, I don't have a problem with it because they're requesting it.

Yes.

Yeah, it's that simple.

Certainly.

We can handle that.

You know, I have lieutenants that make a pretty nice salary.

This is something that, you know, we can set up with them to where we're down there once a month.

Did y'all want to add anything?

As far as the workload goes, we do have personnel assigned to our EMS side.

EMS captain here is going to head that up, and I'll be the next one if she talks to the chief.

And we told them we can put in the MOU many different things.

Just throwing this out here, they haven't said this, but if they don't want us in there without them being there, without Kirsten being there, it's fine.

Absolutely fine.

We'll abide by any of that.

And I guess we would also be providing all the renewables and the drugs, etc.

Well, there are BLS agencies.

Can we do this administratively?

Okay.

Okay, so we don't need to come back.

We'll just work through the MNU and then you have authority to sign off.

Okay.

That works for us.

Okay.

Thank you, guys.

C. Dan Chipman, Director of Finance and Kathy Shafferick, County Administrator.

He's going to present.

Moral support.

Okay.

Thank you, Board, for allowing me to speak tonight.

So as you know, Matthew McLaren spoke two weeks ago from RFCA.

So I assume after many audits, there might be a few lingering questions or can you explain that or, you know, kind of.

So we just thought we'd write up three bullet points in particular.

The fourth one isn't as important.

So Matt McLaren, again, senior partner with RFCA said that, and he said it correctly, $3.2 million was transferred from the debt service fund to the water sewer funds.

And I'm reading from my script because this is the best way to say it.

Just to clarify, there was no money taken from the general fund.

Prior to the county taking over the water and sewer services from RSA, the debt service fund was used to track funds that were committed to be used for debt service payments related to the VRA water and sewer debt and or capital projects.

As of June 30, 2022, so basically two and a half years ago, the balance of the debt service fund was $3.2 million from July 1 of 2022 through June 30 of 2024.

There was no activity reported in the debt service fund.

So the remaining $3.2 million was transferred to the water sewer funds so that the funds could be used for their previously committed purpose.

Literally just put it from this fund over to this fund.

no new money coming out of the general fund.

I just wanted to clarify that because we had some questions on that.

Another clarifying point was Matt had mentioned in the audit correctly on page 23 of the audit and you know I gave you each a copy if you want to go back after this and look at it.

6.9 million dollars was how much our fund balance grew from

fiscal year 23 to fiscal year 24.

And we just thought we'd break that out a little more because he gave you the big number.

But it's really important to kind of know 3.9 million of that is for restricted and committed funds.

And the other 3 million and 41,000 is for unrestricted funds.

So your fund balance, I always kind of like to look at the unrestricted number, grew basically just over $3 million.

3.9 million grew in unrest, sorry, restricted funds.

So the two of those together, you add them together equals his total amount.

I just want to explain it because a lot of times there's a little confusion over what's restricted and what's unrestricted.

And then there was a question, and sometimes I admit the audit is confusing because, like Matt had mentioned, there's countywide funds and then there's fund financials for each fund.

And when you kind of try to compare that, it's like comparing origins and apples.

It can get very confusing and it takes Cooper and I a little bit of time to kind of go, okay, what was said there and what actually was Matt trying to say?

So we actually ran this all back by Matt to make sure we're just clarifying and getting it right.

So it was stated that the county's revenues decreased by 10 million when you compare FY24 to the previous year, FY23.

And that was in reference to the table on page 13 of the audit.

So and it clearly shows in there.

Yeah, if you look at 23 was 72 million.

And then in 24, it went down to 61 million.

So you go, oh, gosh, we lost revenue.

Well, the biggest reason for this decrease, again, big thing that occurred is we we acquired RSA.

And 18 million, almost 19 million, 20 million of those was recorded as a revenue because the capital we acquired from RSA is actually recorded as a revenue.

I asked Cooper about that too.

I said, it's not like money coming in.

It's actually just capital.

But he gave me a good accounting definition of it as anything that's providing good to the county is considered a revenue revenue.

So it's kind of confusing when you kind of throw that one-time accounting entry and you're comparing year over year, you're looking at those numbers.

So that was a one-time accounting entry basically that made it, if you will, look like the revenue went down when you look at those two.

All I'll say is if you go to the back of the audit and you look at those tables at the back, you will see our revenues like when you're looking at the general fund every year are going up.

Again, when he's blending it in on the countywide and he's looking at all that, it kind of throws that number off.

So those are just the points I wanted to make.

Because the assets, right?

Okay.

Other questions?

We're good.

Thank you for the clarification.